Thailand is currently in the great unknown as the ‘Move Forward Party’ stares down risk and conflict (as well as a potential coup) if it fails to finalize a coalition government. While the military assures order and denies the chance of a coup, concerns still remain over stability and what will happen in the coming months. Phichai Ratnatilaka Na Bhuket, a respected academic, outlines two scenarios:

1. MFP coalition success brings stability, democracy, and economic growth

2. MFP coalition failure (due to PM elect Pita unable to get enough senators in the upper house to vote him in as PM) leads to division, conflict, and an economic downturn

The influence of social media on the MFP’s decision-making, coupled with the absence of Section 112 (Lèse-majesté) revisions in the memorandum of understanding has added an element of uncertainty.

Our Take

The coming months will be VERY interesting on the heels of last week’s election results. Things are far from certain for Pita Limjaroenrat and the multi-party coalition that he will ultimately form as they still require in and around 70 of the 250 Senate votes to lock things in as far as the PM position goes. The wrinkle in the equation is the fact that 194 of the 250 senators were appointed by the previous administration, so only time will tell what plays out.